The Indian Sales Managers Index (SMI) for April, shows that the Indian economy has largely recovered from the effects of December’s demonetisation policy. Overall economic activity, as indicated by the Headline’ Sales Managers Index (SMI), has surpassed November’s previous all-time survey high. The Market Growth Index has recovered rapidly and has now comfortably overtaken previous demonetization highs.
The Staffing Levels and Business Confidence Indexes have also recovered to near previous highs in April. Perhaps the most disturbing element of the April survey is the rapid increase in Prices Charged Index. However, sales managers are reporting that this could be a short term phenomenon as businesses try to recover revenue lost through the January/February sales slump.
Profit margins have recovered from the January/February dip and now look very healthy. The Indian Rupee continues to be much undervalued on the World Price Index (WPI) scale by 44%, using April data. Businesses are taking advantage of the situation created by such an undervalued currency, with the majority of panel members feeling that the current FX level remains advantageous.
I am very optimistic about the Indian economy over the next few years. Playing this trend via shares in Fairfax India.